Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
