Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
